By Erik Solheim
OSLO, Norway, Nov 12 2024 – The nation which more than any other caused the climate crisis will leave it to the rest of the world to sort out the mess.
That is a takeaway from the US election last week.
Erik Solheim
The numbers are clear: US emissions up to today are 8 times the Chinese, 25 times the Indian and the difference is even bigger if we compare with small island development states or with Africa. The US will leave it to the victims of climate change to save the planet.
This week the world comes together in Baku, Azerbaijan for the UN climate talks, on the eve of the hottest year since the 1200s. The meeting takes place a week after a flood which took more than 200 lifes in one of the world´s most developed states, Spain. The last years have seen wildfires in the Amazon, and in California, Greece and Turkey. Floods have caused massive damage in Pakistan and China. Northern India experienced 52 degrees last Summer in areas where very few people have access to air condition.
From every indicator – its time to act. To act now!
The bad news is that the world ´s most powerful leader believes we should do nothing.
The good news is that this matters much less than we tend to think.
Of course Trumps victory will make it more challenging to find compromises on financing and other issues in Baku. Leaders will ask why their nation shall act or indeed pay, if the US doesnt. Global climate diplomacy will be in jeopardy. We will probably also see a roll back of the financial support for domestic climate action in the US introduced by Biden . Trump will withdraw the US from the Paris agreement, may be even from the UN Climate Convention.
But still there is hope. I am confident we will win the struggle. Here is why:
Most importantly it´s China, India and Europe which are leading on climate, not the US, even under Biden. China is the indispensible nation for climate action not the US. Last year China contributed 2/3 of all global renewable energy. It produced 60% or more of everything green – electric cars, buses and batteries, solar panels and wind mills, hydropower and high speed rail. China is also the world´s largest tree planter, by far.
India is aiming for 500 gigawatt of solar, wind and hydro by 2030. Prime minister Modi is launching «green missions» for India by the day, for instance a program for ten million homes with solar panels. Indian states like Gujarat have massive green ambitions.
Indonesia, the second largest rain forest nation, has drastically reduced deforestation. Brazil is following.
Europe was once the climate leader, even if it is now surpassed by Asia. The Green New Deal brings green development to Europe.
China, India, Europe and many more dont act on climate to please America. They act because climate change is a huge threat to their nations. They act because climate action is an enormous opportunity for green jobs, profits and prosperity.
The world can do well without the US
Secondly the forces fighting for a cooler world are also strong in the US itself.
Powerful American states support climate action. California, New York and many other states will not relinqush green efforts, but probably fight Trump tooth and nail. The economy of California alone is among the ten biggest in the world.
Business is leading the charge, not the government. No major US business saluted when Trump last time took US out of Paris agreement. US business see opportunities for profits and jobs in climate action The efforts of the US tech industry to source green power for its data center is more important than most government programs.
Business will be lukewarm to Trump´s desire to curb US climate action. He has portrayed the shift to electric cars as a «win for Beijing». The opposite is obviously the case. If Detroit doesnt start turning out electic cars, China will capture the entire global market. The Chinese domestic car market is already bigger then the American, and its electric. Buses, scooters and taxis, half of all new cars in China, are now electric.
Noone who switched from gasolin to electric cars has ever returned. The electric cars are more hight tech, pollute less, make less noise and create a better driving experience. The global trend is towards electric cars.
US business will of course be vary to leave the market for electric cars or green energy totally in the hands of China.
Thirdly, while many feel despondant today, nothing stands still in politics. A majority of Americans said they dont like Trump, even on the day they elected him. Problem for the Democrats – they are even less loved.
On election day Americans endorsed abortion in referendum after referendum. Even very conservative states supported European style welfare policies in referendums. Minimum wages fared similarly well. 57% of the voters in deeply Republican Florida even wanted abortion up to 24 weeks, a non starter in liberal Europe.
All action creates counter action. The global and US anger Trump will cause may be exactly what a fairly docile global green movement needs?
Environmentalist need to be more people centered, and we will win.
Lastly the election of Trump may paradoxically create a more peaceful world and that will help the climate movement. He strongly argued in his campaign that the US should focus on its own borders, not on everyone else borders. The time of the Neocons, both democratic and Republican, who couldnt see a war they didnt like, may be over? Trump may focus US resources on real American foreign policy needs, not believing as the Neocons that every square meter of planet Earth is an American Security risk you neeed to fight for.
The war in Ukraine may end? There is very little reason to believe Ukraine will be in a stronger negotiation position down the road. Continued war will only bring more death and destruction. A compromise now will be painful for Ukraine but is in all likelihood the least bad outcome. Trump may bring that and then Climate will again be more centre stage in global politics.
At the end of the day the election of Trump signals that US decline as the dominant world power will accellerate. His protectionist economic policy will make US business less competitive. Decreased migration will reduce economic growth. Trump is less likely than Biden to be able to make allies. Domestic turmoil and polarization will continue. The global trend towards a multipolar world dominated by the Global South will speed up. After a century of US dominance in world affairs, the ascent of Asia is not necessarily bad for the planet?
Erik Solheim is a Norwegian diplomat and former politician. He served in the Norwegian government from 2005 to 2012 as Minister of International Development and Minister of the Environment, and as Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme from 2016 to 2018
IPS UN Bureau
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